The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales Quarter 3 report forecasts GDP growth of 1.1% in 2017, business investment -3.7%. A basket of 21 forecasts published less recently (between July 20th and August 10th) averages 0.7% GDP growth, but with a very large spread (-1.3% to +2.7%). Our sense…
Economics
10 posts
Introduction This article gives a brief overview of flash business reaction to the referendum outcome, consensus economic forecasts and our views on them, our central and upside cases for trade negotiations, our take on regulatory issues, potential implications for private, public and foreign investment, and a review of the risks…
Look, I love modern Greece. Since my wife and I met, what, 28 years ago now, we’ve usually spent a month every year in Greece. And I love Ancient Greece. As a teenage boy I was enraptured by Plato’s dialogues of Socrates. (Although, in hindsight, I’m not altogether sure why…
A review of Diesal? And Other Future Transport Fuels (60 minute briefing series) by Adrian Nixon. Can you make the cultural change from being miners to being farmers? Here’s how the author describes his own book: “This book is the first in a new series of briefings that can be…
I took a sabbatical a few years ago and ended up doing an MBA at Bradford. One day the microeconomics lecturer, Damian Ward, posed a couple of questions, along these lines: – You decide to set up a refreshment stall on a beach. Where’s the optimal place to set up stall?…
Strategic Positioning in the Leisure Travel Industry “The prerequisite for effective environmental analysis is to distinguish the vital from the merely important” Robert M. Grant, Contemporary Strategy Analysis I guess we all read the papers, even if for some of us there’s no actual paper involved any more. So it’s…
THE isles of Greece! the isles of Greece! Where burning Sappho loved and sung, Where grew the arts of war and peace,— Where Delos rose and Phoebus sprung! Eternal summer gilds them yet, But all, except their sun, is set. – Lord Byron, The Isles of Greece A stone’s throw…
“One unusual indicator of risk aversion among US consumers is the number of Google searches for “gold price” in the US. The Economist showed last year that this indicator is inversely correlated with consumer confidence. Google searches for the gold price peaked last August. In a sign of growing confidence…
A correspondent writes: “Take a look at the FTSE 100 over the last 25 years and give some thought as to how an investor should respond to the much more volatile and cyclical characteristics of the stock market over the last 10 or 12 years. In my view the market…
A while ago I had a guest article published on Management Thinking, the blog of Bradford University School of Management. ‘How much is that doggy in the window? A reflection on the Crash of 2007‘ looks at the work of the late Benoit Mandelbrot on financial market behavior and the underestimation…